Scenario

The ongoing struggle between liberalism and authoritarianism continues, but within the established liberal global framework. Authoritarianism continues its decline, but bides its time.

Within liberalism, the struggle between right and left liberalism continues, one side pushing for absolute property rights, the other for partial property rights and a social minimum. There is a slow move toward a global center left consensus. The more radical liberals, right and left libertarians, continue to influence the intellectual debate, but do not gain in power. State socialism is out of the picture, but some socialist ideas on equality and property influence the center left consensus. China continues as a mix of political authoritarianism and economic liberalism, with a gradual increase in personal freedom.

Industrial civilization continues its rapid use of non-renewable resources. This is slowed down some by resource use taxes, cap and trade regimes, regulations, changes in consumer habits, and by technological advances, buying some time.

In parallel with this, local alternative economies that don't rely so much on the global market system slowly emerge. These help some, but are largely subsumed under the general category of consumer habits.

At some point industrial civilization hits a crisis point, major crop failures, major water shortages, an energy system collapse, massive unemployment, no more social insurance payments, a breakdown of the supply chain, whatever it is.

The very wealthy may be able to withdraw into enclaves, but the rest of us will really suffer or just die off. The people who are operating within the local alternative economies will have the best chance of continuing civilization.

On the other hand, the adjustments to industrial civilization toward using sustainable resources and toward services that use little or no resources may delay the collapse just long enough for it to pull out and gradually reach a sustainable future. If so the local alternative economy sector will have contributed to this.

And there are other even less savory possibilities, like a resurgence of authoritarianism or a total collapse and die off.

So what are we to do?

First, we need to continue the struggle against authoritarianism. If that is lost, the story of freedom may just end. The right and left liberals have common cause here.

Second, we need to support moves in the global system toward the center left consensus. Even if the only morally justified attitude toward ownership of natural resources is joint ownership, the rich are just not going to let that happen. We need to push for what we can reasonably achieve. This means we can't turn our back on the state. We need to do what we can to minimize the damage and to work the bargain of partial property rights in exchange for a social minimum.

Third, we need to do what we can to delay, or maybe even avoid, a collapse by adjusting our personal habits to reduce the damage that we do and hopefully help provide examples and vocabularies for a more sustainable life.

Finally, we need to support the local alternative economies, even if it is only a coop or a community supported agriculture farm. Our localities may be the last chance for civilization if there is a collapse. And in any case, buying local does reduce energy costs and has many other advantages.